A new study claimed that the Brahmaputra river would be hit by disastrous floods much earlier than previously estimated, and that this situation would not occur if this assessment did not include the impact of climate on human activities.
The basis of this claim in the study is the analysis of the river flow in the last 700 years. According to the research paper published in the journal Nature Communication, the long-term minimum flow in a river with different names in Tibet, Northeast India and Bangladesh is much higher than earlier estimates.
Scientists in the research team, including scientists from the US-based Columbia University, said that it was previously estimated that the natural difference in the minimum flow of the river is based on the main water level, which has been calculated since the year 1950.
The scientists said that the current study is based on three-tier data. According to this, the earlier estimate is 40 percent less than the new estimate. Mukund P. Rao, working at Columbia University and the lead author of the research paper, said that whether you consider climate models or natural variability, the message is the same.
We have to be prepared for the floods to be flooded very quickly, contrary to current estimates. Researchers underlined that the river-bordering areas are inhabited by crores of people and regularly face floods during the monsoon season between July and September.
Rao and his comrades tried to find out how many more major floods could occur in the future. For this, he analyzed the average river flow in north Bangladesh which was 41,000 cubic meters per second between 1956-1986. Increased to 43,000 cubic meters per second between 1987–2004.
In the study, he underlined that in the year 1998, Bangladesh had the most devastating floods in which 70 percent of the water was submerged and the water flow was double at that time. Scientists have studied bales made in the trunk of ancient trees at 28 locations in Tibet, Myanmar, Nepal and Bhutan that fall into the water base area of the Brahmaputra River because of the high humidity in the soil, making the tree trunks larger and clearer. Huh.
Based on this, scientists assessed a period of 694 years from 1309 to 2004 and found that the largest and most obvious lumps were formed in the years when there was a terrible flood. Rao said that as per earlier estimates we should expect terrible floods every four and a half years at the end of this century, but we are saying that we should expect catastrophic floods every three years.